Take out Boko Haram, northern Nigeria will be richer than the south in 30 years By Ebuka Nwankwo

Today, it seems like the North contributes significantly to all the indices that make Nigeria look poor. Whether you are looking at maternal mortality, school enrollment, poverty or security, the statistics from the North would always bring down our rating. This will change in the nearest future, if Boko Haram can be taken out. Recasting the last sentence, if Nigeria eliminates Boko Haram today, the North ‘will’ be richer than the South in 30 years. Notice I didn’t use the word ‘could’ or ‘would’, I used the word ‘will’. This is a conclusion from a research I’m trying to conclude. Initially, I didn’t want to share this finding, but on a second thought, I felt it would spur southern Nigeria to get serious.


I really want the South to get serious, especially the Southeast. Last week, in Anambra State, the Chief Justice (CJ) of the state instigated a suit against the President of the Customary Court of Appeal of the state in order to determine who is senior between both of them. What was the problem? The President of the Customary Court of Appeal outshined the CJ at a function. This kind of ‘unseriousness’ between our elites in the Southeast inspired this article.

First, let me take you through some hypotheses in the research. One, oil has been the major commodity that has spurred growth in the South. Everyone knows this. Sadly, the future of this community is very uncertain – this is a topic for another day.  Two, proximity to water bodies had helped the economy of the South. Take Lagos for instance, I do not know what Lagos would have been without Apapa Port and all the sea bordering it. Three, the security situation in the North has hampered its development for a long time. Sadly, insecurity still seems to be the main hindrance to the North’s emancipation. With all these research statements in mind, let me take you through some information that would make you start admiring the North.

The South has been inarticulate lately. They are carried away that Buhari has just entered an Islamic coalition (Saudi Arabia lead coalition). They cannot see that if the North is to develop, it can only do so through its religion. The northern elites know this. Surprised? Recently, Northern governors have gotten some assurance of funds from Islamic banks. These loans are more or less interest free. This is a game changer. Before I continue, let me make it clear that all states in Nigeria need loans. Allocation from Abuja has nose-dived. Sadly, most southern states are getting these loans at a high cost. Fortunately for the North, some of these loans will come with some technical expertise. Let me quote what the president of the Islamic Development Bank, Ahmad Ali, said when northern governors visited the bank. Ali said, ‘’we will work together to come up with a comprehensive plan to support northern Nigeria. We will start with education, and other areas such as job creation…..before you leave Jeddah, I would like to have a list of your priority areas, from education, power to agriculture and so on’’. I won’t go further on the impact of this tremendous assistance because I intend to publish it in a peer-reviewed journal.
From my research, I would like to advise the South to stop talking of this ‘islamisation thing’. If the North becomes like the UAE, especially like Dubai, will you say it has been Islamized. Loans from Islamic multilateral organizations can change the face of the North. If the South is worried about islamisation, they should talk to their senators and representatives. I must state here that as a Christian, I understand the South’s worries.

Do you know that a developed country like Australia is now looking at agriculture as its lifeline? Their economy has been greatly battered by the fall in commodity prices. They earned a lot from mining.  The way the North is going about agriculture, they would soon start feeding the South. I pity my Biafrian brothers who want to leave the ‘Union’. Let me use this opportunity to comment on MASSOB and IPOB. Dear Ndigbo, please engage Buhari intellectually. Organize debates and not protests. Well publicized debates would surely embarrass any government, if points are well articulated. What worked for the militants in the Niger Delta might not work for MASSOB or IPOB.

Let us look at that the giant strides taken by some northern elites. Take for example, Gov Badaru Abubakar’s plans for Jigawa state. Have you seen his blueprint for agriculture? Did I hear you say the North has a comparative advantage over the South in agriculture? The man is setting a good example. A lot of northern elites are following Badaru’s footsteps.

All the North has to do is to put their house in order- especially as it regards cattle grazing. Lately, we have seen some skirmishes between Fulani herdsmen and some southerners. This will soon be a thing of the past. With the grazing zones (ranches) government is proposing, we will soon have many emergency millionaires (I mean dollar millionaires here). Did I hear you say just as the Niger Deltans had emergency millionaires in the last government? Meat business is big business. Do you know how I know businesses that are lucrative? I study the caliber of people going into it.  A former ICAN president, Mr Emmanuel Ijewere, is into meat business. The man has information that you and I don’t have.

On the political front, when last did you see southern governors gathering to discuss issues that affect their region? The APC governors in the Southwest will not agree on anything with the PDP governors from the Southeast. But, the northerners are united and are churning out economic policies.

The North will develop because there is anger in the North -the kind of anger that made them rally round Buhari in the last election. They are beginning to see how their brothers are treated in the South. The Mile 12 fracas is one example. It is this kind of anger that makes a young man from a poor family make money, after been treated with disdain by his relatives.

Still on Gov Badaru Abubakar, have you seen the good example he is setting in Jigawa. He doesn’t even go about abusing his predecessor. This is good for development. No matter how bad your predecessor was, attacking him would hinder development. Remember, he still has his supporters even in your government.

Even when northern governors knew that some the airports they were building were not viable, they kept pumping money into them. This is good thinking. Now these airports would come in handy when they finally industrialize with agriculture. Air cargo can offset the negative effect of being a land locked region. Also, it is this kind of smart thinking that is making Buhari budget 39.4 billion naira for oil exploration in the North this year.

The hashtag ‘#Ese’ has embarrassed the North a lot. You need to see their recent plans for the girl child education. The North is even lucky to have some activist governors in their rank.

That reminds me, I hope you have heard that Kebbi and Kaduna States have submitted a bid in partnership with Dangote and the BOI to acquire Peugeot Automobile Nigeria (PAN) Limited. If this plan scales through, this new company is likely to dwarf what Innonson Motors is doing in Anambra State.

Sadly, the only hindrance to Northern Nigeria’s exponential growth is Boko Haram. Just when we thought that Buhari had reduced the strength of Boko Haram, they struck again, last week in a mosque in Borno. If Buhari can sustain his tempo, the North has the capacity of surpassing the South. This is the conclusion I drew from my research. Interestingly, PwC, a global consulting firm, has just predicted that Nigeria could be within the top 10 economies in 2050. Though I haven’t seen PwC’s full report, if I go by my research, the North is likely to contribute significantly to Nigeria’s growth.

On a final note, the aim of this article is not to blow the North’s trumpet but to ask the South to sit up and get serious. The Southwest is already getting serious with the Oduduwa nation and Odu’a investment Group. The Southeast should get serious!