Buhari: Leading in turbulent times by Magnus Onyibe

President Muhammadu Buhari’s face can sometimes be deadpan and inscrutable.
As an ex soldier, he is supposed to be stern,so wearing a straight face that leaves no clue is not unexpected.

At the inception of his administration,most things that appeared to have been unhinged during the immediate past administration, started falling into place. Electricity supply ramped up from about 3,500 mega watts to about 5000. Petrol queues that hugged the previous administration  until the wee hours,  disappeared and Nigerians even started to queue up to board buses- public order and discipline reminiscent of the days of War Against Indiscipline, WAI-measures introduced during Buhari’s first coming as military head of state in 1984.

Public and private sectors activities started moving so smoothly,that President Buhari’s supporters attributed the manner everything seemed to be falling into place to his ‘body language’ and evidence that a ‘new Sherrif’ was in town.

Femi Adesina, presidential adviser on media and publicity ,waxed lyrical in an article where he referred to president Buhari as the ‘new Sherrif’ in town. Embarrassingly, the 2016 budget  ‘padding’ controversy was perpetuated under the watch of the ‘Sherrif’ until public uproar led to intervention. Garba Shehu, special assistant in the same Dept, was ecstatic in several articles where he extolled the virtues of his principal and praised him to high heavens over his superlative accomplishments, even before formulating any policies.On the eve of president Buhari’s departure to London for an anti-corruption conference convened  by UK prime minister, David Cameron, he wrote that his boss was being courted all over the world because of his accomplishments in the fight against corruption , only for the British pm to ‘burst his bubble’ in a gaffe where he referred to Nigeria as a fantastically corrupt country, in spite of all the seriously loud efforts president Buhari had made to tame the corruption monster.

Information and culture minister, Lai Mohamed, who is reportedly the butt of many jokes in the social media,in the attempt to demonize the former ruling party, ended up de-marketing Nigeria and Nigerians,to the consternation of innocent Nigerians in diaspora who are currently bearing the brunt of the negative labeling arising from the often hyped and exaggerated allegations of corruption.

Following the present economic meltdown which is reflective of policy paralysis besetting govt , Nigeria is now virtually tottering  on the verge of recession according to National Bureau of Statistics, NBS.

As such, the present regime has now inadvertently become a victim of her own negative propaganda, as practically all aspects of life in Nigeria are now in decline.

Which foreign investor would put money in an economy that the authorities have officially admitted is a cesspool of corruption and one in which uncertainty reigns supreme as govt  has failed to come up with clear cut fiscal policy direction, one year after assumption of office?
There is corruption in the Vatican as evidenced by the recent sacking of a top official for corrupt practices, but the Pope would not mount a podium anywhere in the world and say, yes there is corruption in the Vatican and his mission as a Pope is to wipe out corruption.That would be sanctimonious indignation.

President Buhari’s sanctimoniousness is hurting instead of helping  Nigerian economy.

Before the dawn of the current reality,one almost felt that the presidents’s spokesmen were right because truly, without saying a word, some of the oil/gas barons who gamed the system through fuel subsidy, of their own volition started supplying cargoes of fuel that they claimed were outstanding in the contracts via crude-for-refined products swap.

We even heard that others in the oil and gas industry paid into govt coffers, huge sums of money that they voluntarily declared as being outstanding in their custody.

Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas, NLNG company,even joined the bandwagon by remitting over $2bn into federation account. Money that had been held back from the previous govt, and which thankfully enabled the federal Govt under president Buhari, bail out the states that were ailing financially.

In fact, it was so wonderful to behold the situation whereby a nation in which accountability was an anathema, suddenly becoming more rules conscious and compliant.

Expectedly, the days of chastity did not last for long.

Today,the joy ride which the initial positive developments reflected are now behind us as the bubble has burst.

Let me put some flesh on the bones:

Until last week, fuel queues had become a badge of dishonor adorned by Nigerians ; it only abated with fuel  pump price  jumping from N86 to N145; electricity power supply has dropped to all time low of less than 1000 megawatts, while tariffs have hit the roof and resort to the use of Gen sets is now the order of the day ;GDP growth rate has plummeted from 2.11% barely one year ago to -0.36% and unemployment rate has climbed up to 12.1%;l from 10.4%; Naira is now exchanging with the USA dollar at between N320-400/$1; and crude oil production/export has been hovering around 1.5 million barrels a day from 2.2 million allotted by OPEC, which is 24 years low; and to cap it up, inflation is now 13.7 as at end of April, up from about 12.6 last year.

What the economic index above denotes is misery as evidenced by the atmosphere of doom and gloom  which are now pervasive in Nigeria.

So unbeknown to those whose who had the false and erroneous impression at the nascent stage of this administration that it was the fear of president Buhari,also known as ‘body language’, that was boosting electricity supply, keeping  fuel flowing in petrol stations, and making  exchange rate stable, they were wrong.

The truth is that it was actually the momentum built up by the previous administration which was working extra hard to earn votes during last general elections,in order to return to office that was sustaining the economy.

In the absence of further policy directives by the new govt, the previous momentum lost steam resulting in economic slow down and subsequent degeneration into the current melt down.

Arising from the foregoing,the new Sheriff in town and body language hypothesis were purely myths that have been demystified by current realities.

Fortunately all is not lost yet, as there is still plenty of time to recaliberate.

Of all the series of events that have happened since the return of Buhari on May 29,2015 to the saddle of leadership of Nigeria, the enlistment and empaneling of a transition committee headed by former super permanent secretary, Ahmed Joda from the outgone administration to the present was quite epochal and significant in my judgement.

However, not implementing most of the proposals in the 800 page recommendations of the 19-man committee has turned out to be the Achilles heels of this administration and the assertion above is made without malice.

As l can recall, the committee which comprised of accomplished technocrats and experts from both the public and private sectors, had seven people from the north, five from the south west,three from south-south, two from the middle belt  and two from south-east,working  assiduously for several weeks combing through hand-over documents from the outgone govt.

In the course of the exercise, they must have read through files detailing what informed certain policy decisions,challenges encountered in implementation,before adopting some and discarding others after review.

The Single Treasury Account , TSA and Zero Based Budgeting, ZBB which were unimplemented initiatives of the former regime, now being operated by the present govt, must have been discovered in the course of the exercise.

The case for the abolishment of the obnoxious fuel subsidy policy which the panel also proposed, and govt initially rejected, must have also been identified at the same time, as well as floating naira exchange rate.Similarly, the sale of valuable oil/gas assets to raise funds to pay down NNPC joint venture  cash calls were also proposed, but the president , perhaps based on his unbridled love for the masses, rejected those proposals, insisting that he had not been convinced by the arguments that the poor would not be negatively impacted,if fuel subsidy was removed;exchange became flexible and some oil assets were sold.
Furthermore, the president also stuck to his gun on devaluation of the naira  which was pegged at N197/$1, even though reality indicated that rates are much higher in the parallel market. The authorities have  also been averse to selling public assets ostensibly due to the belief that it would produce private oligarchs, even though Saudi Arabia is more or less doing so now to bail her self out of the prevailing global recession arising from sharp drop in crude oil price.

Considering the positive outcome of the TSA and ZBB policies on accountability and transparency in the management of public funds so far,not embracing discontinuation of fuel subsidy-until last week ,failing to  float the naira/dollar exchange rate and refusing to sell down of some oil assets to raise funds, appear to me as the major factors responsible for the current economic paralysis that Nigeria is now mired in or contending with.

By omission or commission, president Buhari’s inflexibility rooted in his military dogma might inadvertently be a clog to Nigeria’s progress, particularly with respect to managing the economy.

In military culture, backing out or retreating is a sign of cowardice, therefore it is an option a warrior does not consider.
As a military general,president Buhari personifies and wears that principle as a toga.

History was made when a media man, Adamu Ciroma,tapped to head the News Agency of Nigeria, NAN was mistakenly announced as the candidate for Central of Nigeria, CBN governor position.

As a military man who can never reverse himself , General Sanni Abacha, then military ruler, did not change the posting simply because it is not in the character of the military to do so.Anyway, Ciroma ended up acquitting himself creditably as CBN governor.

President Buhari revealed his tight grip and control over Nigerian economy when he unequivocally asserted during media interviews that he would not devalue the naira and thereafter casted aspersions on his predecessors in office who devalued the naira.That might have sent jitters down the spines of foreign investors.

He also openly spoke against accepting IMF loan and foreclosed the removal of fuel subsidy until a few days ago when deregulation of the down steam sector of the oil industry was announced while he was    attending a conference in Britain.
Such rigidity makes investors skittish, particularly Foreign Direct Investments, FDIs because entrepreneurs cherish the flexibility to be very mobile with their investments either in manufacturing or treasury bonds.

Little wonder it is only Aliko Dangote, Jim Ovia , Femi otedola ,Tony Elumelu, Mike Adenuga, Samad Rabiu, Tunde Folawiyo, and Sayyu Dantata etc that are now investing locally, perhaps out of sheer patriotism.

Without a doubt , president Buhari loves Nigeria and he is really on a mission to revive the decaying economy  and put the country on even keel and sustainable growth path.
Be that as it may, the president is yet to come to the realization that the skill sets required for managing Nigeria some 32 years ago are now outdated.

During his Chatham House, UK presentation before his landmark victory at the polls, president Buhari made the following declaration  “Il can not change the past but l can change the present and future”. He continued “So before you now is a former military ruler, who is ready to operate under democratic norms”.He then described himself as a “converted democrat who had realized the futility of one party rule after the collapse of the Soviet Union”.

By and large, Nigerians believed president Buhari wholeheartedly, hence he was elected by a margin about 2.5m votes more than the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan.

Now, it’s time to walk the talk.

In a 21st century digitized and globalized world of capitalism and open govt,not only is there no room for one party rule, one man rule is also not acceptable.

Mr president must realize that the role of Nigeria, politically and economically, has become more significant globally and applying analogue policies towards solving problems that need digital solutions, is tantamount to recommending  panadol analgesic for the cure of cancer or AIDS.

Mr president must therefore take a second look at the report that the transition committee that he set up at the inception of his administration presented to him  and use it as a blue print for administering Nigeria.

Surely, a lot of effort was put into the mandate of putting the report together and there must be more nuggets of economic wisdom- like TSA and ZBB – that could be harnessed and converted to policy gems by this administration.

As we commence the second year of his four years mandate next month, it would serve mr president better, if he sticks to his pet project of fighting corruption and recovering looted funds (more quietly) which is his unique selling point,USP.

He must leave the daily management of the economy to the cabinet which he arduously put together after a search that took the better part of six months.

In other words, president  Buhari must repose confidence in his ‘dream team’ cabinet- which l referred to in a previous article as ‘Cleanest Dirty Shirts In The Laundry’- by not micro managing them.

l’ve no doubt that if mr president relaxes his strong hold on policies and programs, there would be a lot more to celebrate during the second anniversary of his administration next May 29, 2017.

Onyibe, a development strategist, futurologist and a former commissioner in delta state govt is an alumnus of the Fletcher school of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts university, Massachusetts, USA.