Those who want Buhari’s job By Wole Olaoye

No president is unbeatable. Ask the Malaysians who recently elected Mahathir Mohamad, a 92-year-old former prime minister who had teamed up in an unlikely alliance with his political opponents, some of whom he had jailed. So many factors seemed to be loaded against Grandpa Mohamad, not least of which was his advanced age. He was on overtime as the life expectancy in his country is 74.9 years.

Lesson: You may write a candidate off on account of corruption, incompetence, ill-health, inability to connect with the common folk … but don’t write off anyone on account of age.

It is in this connection that the race for Aso Rock in 2019 promises to be exhilaratingly breathtaking. As in 2015, the man to beat is the incumbent president. At that time, many pundits gave the contest to the then president because, in their reasoning, it was virtually impossible to defeat a sitting president in Africa.

They ignored the baggage of corruption which dogged every step of his government and made his cherubic pronouncements ring hollow. Now we are at that same junction again and I am hearing the same refrain of invincibility of a sitting president all over again.

Away from the cacophony of partisan town-criers, it is clear that every mortal is beatable in a fair contest. However, a winner will emerge based on people’s perception of his/her personal integrity, ability to deliver and state of health, the latter of which has now become a needling factor in Nigerian politics . So, those campaigning on the basis of age had better focussed on other more resonating factors.

For a country of about 200 million people, Nigeria is blessed with great achievers in every field of human endeavour. The only problem is that the best hardly ever make the victory podium at any level of electoral contest. We are spoilt for choices. The forthcoming 2015 elections will demonstrate this fact to the rest of the world.

Aside from the incumbent who has signified his intention to run for a second term, who are the other promising aspirants to the most coveted seat in the land? At the last count, there were over 30 such aspirants, but we shall just consider a few of them who could make waves.

Fifty-six-year-old Donald Duke, as Governor of Cross River State between 1999 and 2007 delivered a five-star performance. Born in the East, he grew up in the West and attended both the Federal Government College, Sokoto and Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, in the North. He bagged  LLM in Business Law and Admiralty from the University of Pennsylvania in 1984. He has wide connections and is regarded as a poster boy for the clamour for young people to rise up and take the destiny of their fatherland in their digital hands. If Duke emerges candidate of the Third Force or ADC or by whatever name the new alternative movement is called, he has the capacity to pose a credible challenge.

Kingsley Bosah Chiedu Ayodele Moghalu is 55 years old. Within that space of time, he has been President of the Institute of Governance and Economic Transformation, an official of the United Nations and Deputy Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank. After graduating from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Moghalu obtained an M.A. at The Fletcher School of Law of Diplomacy at Tufts University. He later obtained a Ph.D. in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) He is a Professor of Practice in International Business and Public Policy at Tufts University and is the author of the celebrated book “Emerging Africa, How the Global Economy’s ‘Last Frontier’ Can Prosper and Matter.” Like Duke, he is also likely to seek the nod of the Third Force’s platform.

The runner-up to Buhari in the APC presidential primaries of 2015, Engr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a former Governor of Kano State and Senator representing Kano Central Senatorial District, is also in the race. Would the 61-year-old politician be seeking to run against Buhari within APC or would he carry his wares elsewhere? Operating from the shadows is Senate President Bukola Saraki. Will he or won’t he?

From the PDP stable, the redoubtable former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, 71, also wants the ultimate job - just like 69-year-old Sule Lamido. Both need no introduction. Some ‘outsiders’, if they show up at the final stage, may make a surprising dent in the electoral calculations of the big three parties.

Wise strategists wouldn’t write them off in a hurry: 48-year-old ex-Senator Dr. Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed with Degrees from the University of Westminster, who is also the Founder and Co-Chancellor of Baze University, Abuja; trail-blazing Sahara Reporters Founder and lecturer at the City University of New York, Omoyele Sowore, 47; accomplished playwright, poet and Founder of the Africa Leadership Institute USA, 68-year-old Prof. Iyorwuese Hagher; Adesina Fagbenro-Byron, 59, Former regional coordinator for DFID, among others.

It took a coalition to unseat President Jonathan in 2015. Nothing less than that, across political party lines, can separate Buhari from his job in 2019. I am talking of cold calculations, sans sentiments, sans prejudice. As things are going, that grand coalition appears impossible. But if I have learnt anything from Nigerian politics, it is that, as Prof. Roger Makanjuola would say, water can run uphill. Never say never