Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic At All? By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.


It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.

It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer. If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!

If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon. The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.

The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.