2019: Nigeria Away From The Precipice By Jasper Jaja

The 27th of August 2018, marked an ignoble anniversary — 33 years since a brutal military cabal ruling Nigeria with an iron fist was ousted from power by its brothers-in-arms. The failures of leadership the coupists highlighted then, as contained in the speech read by Brigadier Joshua Nimyel Dogonyaro, are eerily similar to the failures Nigeria is struggling with today — a lethargy in the execution of government policies, an absence of cohesion and a lack of direction, the hijack of government by a greedy cabal, the pursuit of perceived political opponents, and the wanton waste of scarce resources on unproductive ventures.

The common thread binding 1985 to 2018? President Muhammadu Buhari.

At one of many roadside newspaper stands littered around Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja, a small but loud group of men argue about Nigeria’s myriad problems. In the South Eastern state of Imo, 114 women — including some grandmothers — were arrested and detained for a week for embarking on a peaceful protest asking for information on the location of Nnamdi Kanu, the missing leader of pro-secessionist group IPOB; to the chagrin of the administration. The National Bureau of Statistics had just published a report showing that rising oil prices — which accounted for approximately 70% of the Federal Government’s revenues in 2017 — had failed to prevent a slowdown in GDP growth. US President Donald Trump was reported to have said he never wanted to meet anyone as lifeless as Buhari again after a meeting he held with Buhari at the White House. A journalist released a heartbreaking audio recording of a message from a girl begging the President to rescue her. Leah Sharibu, who was kidnapped along with 104 other girls back in February by Boko Haram, but was not freed with them because she refused to denounce Christianity, had just been heard on tape asking for her freedom.

The men were angry.

“I can’t wait to vote this government out!”, one of the younger men, Bitrus declared. A conversation with Bitrus revealed he was unemployed. He also didn’t have a PVC. “I went there last week but the queue was too long in my area and INEC only brought one machine,” Bitrus said. “I will try again tomorrow. I have never voted but I must vote this time. The suffering is too much. But let’s tell ourselves the truth, who can remove Baba?”


Who indeed.

Away from the two major political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), popular opinion is that none of the other 66 parties has the political clout to swing an electoral victory in the 2019 presidential race. Leading figures within the PDP have admitted that the Party’s chances have been significantly boosted by the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) alliance — a motley crew of 38 political parties with no shared ideology but the pursuit of presidential power. Comprised of the PDP, the splinter r-APC faction, Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Labour, the coalition will most likely file behind the winner of the PDP Primaries scheduled to hold on the 5th of October.

When one examines some of the frontline aspirants jostling to become the PDP flagbearer, things start to get complicated.

Sule Lamido (age 70) is a former Ambassador of Foreign Affairs and was the Governor of Jigawa State from 2007–2015. Lamido has serious democratic credentials — he was the National Secretary of the SDP, the party Moshood Abiola ran on for his botched 1993 presidential bid. In 1998, as part of the G-34, Lamido was arrested by the dictatorship of Sani Abacha for resisting Abacha’s plan to transition into a civilian president. Lamido is an old-school political animal, and believes he can build a peaceful progressive nation united in its diversity.

Unfortunately he has an ongoing Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) case against him and his sons, a situation that all but nullifies any real ambitions he might have. As part of the G-7 governors who formed the core of the n-PDP, Lamido pulled out just before they joined the APC. He claimed he could not destroy a house he had helped build. More cynical observers reported at the time that he was negotiating a soft-landing for his two sons facing corruption charges. History is expected to repeat itself if he decides to challenge the more brutal Buhari.

Atiku Abubakar (aged 71) is the oldest of the aspirants, and arguably the one with the most ‘name-recognition’. He served as the Vice-President of Nigeria from 1999–2007, and as Chairman of the Economic Team, was responsible for most of the far-reaching reforms undertaken by the Olusegun Obasanjo administration. An astute business man and an educationist, Atiku is a darling of the Southern part of Nigeria, but his capitalist instincts and liberal outlook have paradoxically put him at odds with his more conservative Northern base. Atiku is running his campaign on the twin stilts of jobs/the economy, and restructuring.

In 2013 Atiku, five governors and other members of the nPDP faction defected to the newly formed All Progressives Congress. Atiku returned to the PDP in 2018.

Atiku has never been convicted of any wrong doing, but he has been unable to dispel rumours of corruption that perpetually swirl around him. His inability to travel to the US is seen as positive proof that America views him as a less than saintly character.

Rabiu Kwankwaso (aged 61) holds an MSc degree in Water Engineering from Loughborough University, UK. He won a House of Representatives seat in 1992, and was elected as Deputy Speaker. He went on to become Governor of Kano State from 1999–2003, lost his re-election bid, but returned in 2011 for another four-year term. He is currently serving as a Senator. Kwankwaso was recognised by the UN for introducing a school feeding programme for primary school children; he also introduced free natal programmes for women. However he hasn’t as yet articulated any clear policy direction on any of the major election hot topics.

In 2013 Gov. Kwankwaso, four governors and other members of the nPDP faction defected to the newly formed All Progressives Congress. Kwankwaso returned to the PDP in 2018.

Kwankwaso derives his political strength from his Kwankwasiyya movement — a cult-like following of fanatical red-capped acolytes. He also established the Hisbah a pseudo-military group that sought to enforce Sharia in multicultural Kano; drinking spots were regularly raided and alcohol confiscated or destroyed. Currently buffeted by the similarly-fanatical Buharists, Nigerians have understandably grown wary of demagogues.

Aminu Tambuwal (aged 52) / Ibrahim Dankwambo (aged 56) are young, currently-serving governors who bring the magic phrase “IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION” to the table. They are both highly educated (Tambuwal is a lawyer, Dankwambo holds a Bsc in Accounting, an MSc in Economics, and a PhD in Accounting) but what they boast of in education they lack in serious political clout in their respective states.

Tambuwal is a first term governor, and political observers are perplexed at his decision to ditch the ruling party and contest for the Presidency, given that he might end up with nothing. There is some speculation that he might be a mole, a spoiler sent in to disrupt the PDP Primaries. No such concerns exist for Dankwambo, who is already serving his second and final term as governor.

In 2013 Gov. Tambuwal, four governors and other members of the nPDP faction defected to the newly formed All Progressives Congress. Tambuwal returned to the PDP in 2018.

Both Governors could serve as poster boys for the new, reformed PDP, especially as they would be going up against a septuagenarian in Buhari. However, neither has shown they have the appetite for the fight ahead.

Bukola Saraki (aged 55) is arguably the most powerful politician in Nigeria today. Deftly avoiding the legal landmines and grenades being constantly lobbed in his direction by the Executive, he has managed to build a loyal following of heavyweights who would gladly step in front of a bullet for him (Sen. Dino Melaye, Bolaji Abdullahi and the Governor of Kwara, Abdulfatah Ahmed, to name a few). His masterly and composed handling of the affairs of the National Assembly have at times positioned him in a sympathetic yet presidential light that somehow always manages to cast an unsightly shadow over Buhari.

In 2013 Sen. Saraki, five governors and other members of the nPDP faction defected to the newly formed All Progressives Congress. He returned to the PDP in 2018.

Saraki is young, educated (he is a British-trained medical doctor), rich and ambitious. Unfortunately, he is from Kwara. He would thus struggle to convince delegates and Nigeria of his ability to win votes in North Eastern and North Western Nigerian states, a crucial requirement for any successful presidential bid. At the time of writing, Saraki is yet to officially declare his bid to vie for the Presidency.

Ahmed Makarfi (aged 62) “Who?” you ask. Can you say “Dark Horse”? A quiet man, Makarfi is a Chartered Accountant, an MSc Accounting and Finance degree holder, banker, and an academic. He was a lecturer at the Ahmadu Bello University from 1987–1993, and is a member of the Board of Trustees at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution in Abuja as well as its Director of Finance and Administration. He served as Governor of Kaduna State from 1999–2007 and then became a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2007.

In 2017 Makarfi won a bruising battle for the soul of the PDP against Ali Modu Sheriff, and as National Chairman managed to rebuild the foundations of the Party. An enabler and champion of cultural and religious diversity (Makarfi went to secondary school in the East and speaks fluent Igbo), as Kaduna State Governor, Makarfi rose to national prominence for his ability to manage the political, religious and ethnic crises that struck his state in the early years of Nigeria’s return to democratic rule. Conservative but not a fundamentalist, a Makarfi candidacy manages to be just Northern enough to compete for a huge chunk of votes in the NE & NW without alienating the more liberal Southern constituency. He appears to be the most pragmatic choice.

At one of many roadside newspaper stands littered around Nigeria’s capital city, Abuja, a small but loud group of men has arrived at a consensus about Nigeria’s myriad problems and the one man who can solve them.

“Makarfi!”, crows Aminu, proudly. “He’s from my state. He’s a good man. If not EFCC would have picked him by now. The man is not a thief. He said he will restructure and I believe him. I have my PVC.”

“This time”, he says as he walks away, “things will be different”.