Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali: The battle for the Soul of Ethiopia By Temitope Olodo

 

As the Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali, revealed on his twitter page the end of the 72 hours ultimatum given to TPLF fighters to surrender; the region is now in a critical stage and if international intervention is not effective; it could usher in the fragmentation of Ethiopia.

 

PM Ali made it clear in strong terms, what would happen next:

 

“The Ethiopian National Defence Forces have now been directed to conclude the third and final phase of our rule of law operations. In this final phase, a great care will be given to protect innocent civilians from harm…”

 

However, many security analysts are warning of a major war erupting with devastating effect on the civilians who are trapped in the crossfire of both groups. Already, an Africa Union mission made up three former African heads of State - Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia and Kgalema Motlanthe of South Africa have arrived in Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, to try to mediate between the federal government and the northern Tigray state after the conflict that ignited on 4th of November.

 

The Prime Minister with over 16 years military career and who co-founded the Ethiopian Information Network Security Agency (INSA) raising to the position of Deputy Director of INSA has rejected international efforts to negotiate a peaceful end to the fighting, highlighting that the crisis in Ethiopia at this material time is merely a “law-enforcement operation”.

 

If the Africa Union does not have the capacity to restrain the Ethiopian Prime Minister from embarking on the final phase of the conflict; which country in the world could call Ethiopia to order?

 

Ethiopia enjoys a good relationship with Russia which is over 120 years long has acknowledged by both countries when Prime Minister Ali met with President of Russia Vladimir Putin during the first Russia-Africa Summit. The outgoing President of the United States, Donald Trump, does not seems to be interested in the Ethiopia issue - considering PM Ali was the one that denied in the right to get the Nobel Peace Prize.

 

Even as the relationship between PM Abiy Ahmed and TPLF deteriorate into a full blown military confrontation, we must not forget the ‘water wars’ which is an emerging conflict with the Eastern Nile riparian states specifically Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia with Egypt for its part mobilising support from US President Donald Trump to retain its control over the river, who raised the issue of Ethiopia’s GERD while on the phone with Sudanese Prime Minister Abdela Hamdock and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in October 2020, blaming Ethiopia for breaking ‘the deal’ and prompting the US President to cut aid to Ethiopia worth $130 million.

 

The President Elect, Joe Biden, would have to intervene very quickly upon resumption of office in January 2021 to identify a lasting solution to the Ethiopian saga. The United States, which had counted Ethiopia on its side in the Cold War and might have otherwise intervened against Soviet involvement, blinked—it did not want to start World War III over an African territorial dispute. In one of the most astonishing great power convulsions of the Cold War, Ethiopia and Somalia switched sides, with former Soviet ally Somalia becoming part of the Western bloc and Ethiopia allying with the Soviet Union.

 

Whilst, Ethiopia defeated Somalia, but the Ethiopian army—the largest in sub-Saharan Africa and lavishly equipped by the Soviets—still could not crush rebellions elsewhere, in Eritrea, Tigray, and the Oromo regions. The simple truth is this; wars in Ethiopia are easy to start and dreadfully difficult to stop. Far better to head off military operations before they escalate and spread which is what the Africa Union and the United Nation must do right now!

 

As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali prepares to unleash the military might of the Ethiopian National Defence Forces to crush what he calls the ‘TPLF criminal clique’; there is another conflict escalating between the border of Ethiopia and Kenya, in a market town called Moyale where witnesses said neighbourhoods were ransacked and 10 Kenyans dragged away, accused of sheltering members of a splinter group of the Oromo Liberation Front.

 

This is similar to the incident two years ago in March 2018, when nine civilians were killed by the Ethiopian National Defence Force near Moyale after being misidentified as Oromo Liberation Front militants.

 

This is an area known for tension and communal clashes that could results to full blown humanitarian crisis. In fact, four days of ethnic clashes in July 2012 over a long-standing land dispute left at least eighteen dead, and more than twenty thousand people fleeing across the border into Kenya. The refugee crisis is not restricted to the Kenya border alone with tens of thousands of people fleeing the fighting in northern Ethiopia and crossing into Sudan Ethiopia's federal government has come under a lot of pressure from humanitarian agencies to address the alarming crisis.

 

Responding to the unfolding humanitarian crisis, the Prime Minister on his twitter page said:

 

“Humanitarian assistance will now be further reinforced with the opening of a humanitarian access route to be managed under the auspices of the Ministry of Peace. The government stands ready to support all Ethiopians that have fled to return to their communities…”

 

However, it is laughable to expect Ethiopians in these conflict zones to return home when they are cut in-between the crossfire of the conflicting parties.

 

For instance, Ethiopia shares a large porous border straddling a length of 861km with Kenya that passes through Marsabit, Turkana, Waji and Mandera Counties on the Kenyan side, and Borana and Dawa zones on the Ethiopian side.

 

Moyale is the main border post on the Nairobi-Addis Ababa road, with the rising political unrest, there have been many ethnic violence involving the Oromo such as the Oromo–Somali clashes between the Oromo and the ethnic Somalis, with one incident in 2017 leading to up to 400,000 been displaced.

 

It must be recalled that protests broke out across Ethiopia, chiefly in the Oromia Region, following the assassination of musician Hachalu Hundessa on 29 June 2020, leading to the deaths of at least 200 people.

 

The Oromo people are the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia and represent 45.5% of Ethiopia's population of 56,600,000. The OLF Shane group, has been blamed for a series of attacks and killings in western and southern Ethiopia but The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) which is a political party established in 1973 by Oromo people in Ethiopia denies the allegation rather blaming the government for the ongoing crisis.

 

The OLF movement is the culmination of over 70 years of uncoordinated resistance by Oromos against Ethiopian central government with series of press release by the Oromo Liberation front on their website* blaming the Ethiopia Government for massacre against their people and called for the establishment of Oromia National Transitional Government.

 

According to them:

“The various massacres that recently took place in South-Eastern Oromia in Bale Robe, Eastern Oromia in Awaday and Machahara, and Western Oromia in Nekemte clearly indicate the lack of peace and security in Oromia…”

 

The same SOS call was made by the group in a press release on 3rd November this month when it was reported that several Oromia citizens were killed in Western Oromia; a killing attributed to a group called “ABO-Shane” but OLF denied the existence of the group.

 

The ongoing conflicts from the diplomatic war of waters, the TPLF confrontation in the north and tension at the border with Kenya could escalate into a major war that could herald the fragmentation of Ethiopia if not managed.

 

*The Recent Targeted Oromo Youths killings are a Manifestation of the continued lack of peace and security in Oromia. Press Release – Oromo Liberation Front (25th October 2020)